Update: Unsurprisingly, Tesla removed the ReservationId reference in the webpage source code, which tells us that those were most assuredly the actual spot-in-line numbers. Alas, they are now gone.
So you went and ordered a Tesla Model 3 and you're wondering where you are in the line for deliveries? Well, that's a tricky question to answer given how Tesla will be staging the roll-out, but based on data being collected through Tesla Motors Club members, you might be able to get a rough idea.
The whole thing hinges on a "ReservationId" uncovered in the source code of the Tesla Model 3 reservation confirmations on My Tesla. Having collected more than 400 entries, the community has been able to hash out a general idea of where you sit in the line based on your ReservationId. That six-digit number appears to be sequentially tied to when your reservation was placed — the later your reservation, the higher your number (with a starting point of 350000).
The lowest reservation numbers come from those that placed a reservation early on — before the Model 3 was even unveiled, in fact — while the highest numbers (now reaching up to the 750000 range) come from reservations placed in late March and early June. The are some significant and notable outliers, but by and large there's a clear trend:
- The higher your ReservationId, the further back you are in the line.
- To know roughly your spot in line, subtract 350000 from your ReservationId.
While Tesla CEO Elon Musk says that he expects that every current Model 3 reservation will be fulfilled by the end of 2018 and that he hopes to build between 100,00 and 200,000 units of the car by the end of 2017 (essentially, most people who ordered on day one), having a low ReservationId does not guarantee that you'll get your Model 3 delivered before somebody with a higher one.
For one, there are the outliers to contend with. But it's also important to keep in mind how Tesla plans to stage the Model 3 roll-out globally, with the first deliveries happening on the North American west coast near Tesla's factory in Fremont, California, and then spreading eastward across the continent before going global in stages. And current Tesla Model S and Model X owners will get to jump to the front of their line, regardless of their ReservationId (spending $70,000+ on a car has its perks).